The Trade War Is Re-emerging, Where Will Steel Prices Go?

——First-hand observations from stainless steel manufacturers and material suppliers

In recent years, the international trade situation has been changing rapidly, especially the frequent tariff increases between China and the United States, which has put pressure on the global steel industry chain again. At the beginning of 2025, a new round of tax increases on metal products once again aroused widespread attention in the industry. Stainless steel manufacturers and upstream material suppliers were the first to bear the brunt and felt the real impact.

1. The direct impact of tariff policies on the price of stainless steel raw materials

The main raw materials of stainless steel include nickel, chromium, iron and other alloy elements. In the context of the trade war, the import cost of key raw materials has risen, especially resource-based materials such as nickel iron and chromium ore have been restricted, resulting in a rapid increase in domestic steelmaking costs.

At the same time, the United States and other countries have imposed high anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made stainless steel coils, which not only raised export barriers, but also further squeezed the profit margins of domestic high-end stainless steel production capacity. Some manufacturers reported that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, the cost of 304 and 316 series stainless steel materials increased by 8%-15% year-on-year.

2. Instability of the material supply chain has intensified

Under the pressure of tariffs, the global steel flow has begun to reorganize. On the one hand, some low-value-added materials have turned to Southeast Asian countries for export, resulting in unstable delivery time and quality fluctuations, which has increased the procurement risk of manufacturers; on the other hand, upstream alloy suppliers are unwilling to lock in long-term orders under limited profits, further exacerbating supply uncertainty.

For domestic small and medium-sized stainless steel manufacturers, material price fluctuations and uncertain delivery cycles have seriously affected production plans and quotation strategies. Many companies have begun to tend to shorten inventory cycles and turn to on-demand procurement.

3. The slowdown in terminal demand is transmitted to the raw material end

The uncertainty brought about by the trade war has also affected the demand of the terminal industry. Taking export-oriented stainless steel products (such as kitchenware, bathroom, and mechanical parts) as an example, overseas customers have become more cautious in placing orders, and the volatility of order volume has increased, resulting in pressure on the sales of stainless steel plates, strips, bars, and wires.

Material suppliers are facing the dilemma of "no market for prices". Many manufacturers said that although the price of raw materials has risen, the order volume has not seen a synchronous increase, and the profit margin of enterprises has been greatly compressed.

4. Conclusion: Opportunities in crisis, reshaping the industrial structure

The impact of the trade war cannot be ignored, but for stainless steel manufacturers and material suppliers, it is also an opportunity to optimize the industrial structure and reposition the market. By improving the technical content, expanding the domestic demand market, and enhancing the resilience of the supply chain, steel companies are expected to break through the turmoil and find new growth space.

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